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The IPCC's 'Hot Spot' does NOT exist.

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This one's a tough one.

One of the primary tenets / effects of 'man-made' global warming, is known as the 'Hot Spot.'

The thinking behind the 'Hot Spot' is this: in the theory, CO2 is considered a primary forcing in climate change. Pumping extra CO2 into the air forms a heat-trapping 'blanket'; this has its' strongest effect in the tropics, causing the upper regions of the Troposphere - ie, that portion of the atmosphere stretching from the surface of the Earth, to an altitude of about 12 miles - to become much warmer.
This also has the added effect of causing the troposphere to take up more water vapour, which then causes even further heating of the atmosphere.

This, in turn, causes an atmospheric circulation pattern in the tropics, known as Hadley Cells , to expand towards the poles, carrying warm(er) air further north and south, thereby pushing a warmer climate further into the cooler regions of the globe.

There is one additional feature of the 'hot spot' - Stratospheric cooling. The stratosphere is the next layer of the atmosphere above the Troposphere, and contains the Ozone layer, which protects us from ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Clouds are almost non-existent in this layer.
It is from this layer of the atmosphere, that heat energy will radiate back out into space - part of the mechanism which keeps the Earth at a fairly consistent temperature.
According to the theory of 'man-made' global warming, trapping more heat in the Troposphere, causes the Stratosphere to cool. Less heat is radiated out into space, and the planet cooks.

The IPCC's climate models indicate the 'Hot Spot' is out there. The Tropical Hot Spot is forming. The Stratosphere is cooling! This is the 'fingerprint' of human influence on the climate. Proof Positive, that we are cooking the globe!

It does not exist.

As I mentioned here , the 'Hot Spot' is all about feedbacks- and according to any scientist involved in the 'consensus,' ALL feedbacks are Positive.** CO2 traps more heat, causing more water vapour to enter the atmosphere, which traps more heat, causing....... well, You know. Google 'we're gonna turn into Venus!' for the 'tipping point' view of this.

There are currently two methods of measuring temperatures in the upper Troposphere: Radiosonde balloons and satellites.
Each system has its problems - balloons have geographical limitations, while satellites use differing systems, and deteriorate over time.

The IPCC goes into a great deal of detail as to how the climate models all show the 'Hot Spot.' Some do better than others. Some don't show it at all. Those which do the best job of handling humidity ( a feature of the 'Hot Spot' is that life will get more uncomfortable, as humidity builds up beneath that 'heat-trapping' layer of CO2), also appear to indicate the highest climate sensitivities, ie, OMG IT IS GOING TO GET HOT!

Re-check climate sensitivity studies here . Right off the bat, those particular models are Wrong. Another thing: Why is humidity only 'handled well' in those models? Why do the others get it, if not 'Wrong,' then, 'somewhat incorrect'? What is the factor that changes how one model handles humidity, over another?

It gets better - for us, worse for them. Neither satellite data, nor radiosonde balloons, show a Tropical 'Hot Spot.'

Take note to the chart at the top of this article. These are the result found in Douglas et al, 2008. In it they note that 'In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data.'

As of that study, the IPCC's climate models were running up to 300% above Observational Reality.

This study finding no 'Hot Spot' was further reinforced by Seidel et al 2012, which notes that ' the vertical amplification of warming was exaggerated in most models.'

Those who support the theory of AGW have, of course, written their own papers, giving their own reasoning why the 'Hot Spot' is there, despite that observations covering the last 40 years show otherwise. Seems the only place one can find the 'Hot Spot' is in the models- so there MUST be problems with Observational Reality!

Blame the equipment. In 40 years, NO one can find a better way to take temperature measurements? NOAA (radiosondes)? NASA (satellites)? Anyone?

If you wish to see more of the pro-AGW camp's arguments, a good breakdown may be found here.

What's worse, in the leaked copy of the forthcoming AR5 report, some of the IPCC's own models show that the 'Hot Spot' may not exist! Quote: 'Hence, a trend of zero is, with 95% confidence, consistent with some observational trend estimates but not with others.'

Got that? A trend of Zero in the models. Some of the models predict NO 'Hot Spot.'

So, even if there is NO 'Hot Spot,' (some of) the models predicted it, therefore the models are right! Forget the fact that this means NONE of their dire predictions is correct, the Models Are Right, therefore the dire predictions are right!

A further breakdown of all the problems between the models and Reality, may be found here. There's quite a few little details, all nicely broken down. All indicating failure of the models to accurate depict Reality.

Of course, as Reality continues to diverge from the projections of 'man-made' global warming, they've tried to shift the goal posts. So 'Stratospheric Cooling' suddenly became more important than the missing 'Hot Spot.'

So we know that Observational Reality has shown that there is NO 'Hot Spot.' However, there has been stratospheric cooling. Or I should, say, Had been.
And that is a curious thing. The Unproven theory of 'man-made' global warming, states that as the Troposphere gets hotter- that heat, trapped by the 'insulating blanket' of CO2 - the Stratosphere would get cooler.
Except, cooling of the Stratosphere pretty much stopped in 1993. (Please see the chart, 2nd from bottom of page, for Stratospheric temperatures).
This point, in fact, is part of the argument that the 'Pause' in global warming, has actually been going on for much longer than even the '15 years' AGW alarmists reluctantly admit that they were unable to predict or account for. In fact, it is already being shown that the temperature prediction in the upcoming IPCC AR5 report are substantially overestimated.

The upshot?
NO 'hot spot' in the Troposphere.
NO Stratospheric warming since 1993.
The models upon which the IPCC bases all of its' dire predictions for the future, are doing a massive FAIL.

The Hot Spot- they can't find it, and, like the 17 years of no warming, it is a travesty that they can't.


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Author's notes:

I could have wished this particular article were a bit stronger. But it still makes the points.

** An article on Feedbacks is forthcoming.

*edit* :iconkantuck-nadie: adds this to the mix news.slashdot.org/story/13/09/…

Take careful note of the way those who support the IPCC, word things. They do everything they can to weasel their way out of the fact that the climate is not doing what their last report (and this report) have claimed.
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daddyslittlejanegirl's avatar
I always appreciate your style with these. Particularly your use of sources. Very academic, which is appropriate given the nature of the topic.